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<br />DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS
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<br />Population characteristics can include age, income, birth rate, death rate, average income, in-
<br />migration, out-migration, etc. These existing components of a population assist demographers in
<br />projecting the population characteristics of a given area in the future. Household and job
<br />projections are based partially on population projections, as well as on historical trends of those
<br />two characteristics.
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<br />SOURCE OF DATA
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<br />Since reliable population, household and job growth data are such an important aspect of
<br />transportation planning, it is important that the projections be prepared by demographic experts
<br />who take many different factors into account when making their forecasts. Metro COG has
<br />traditionally sought the expertise of the North Dakota State Demographer, Dr. Richard Rathge of
<br />North Dakota State University, for assistance in making the population, household and
<br />employment projections. Dr. Rathge was again consulted for this information in 200 I. He
<br />prepared the projections and worked with the Transportation Technical Committee and Policy
<br />Board to ensure an understanding of the projections.
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<br />POPULATION
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<br />As stated above, the metropolitan population projections were the basis from which the
<br />household and job projections were made. Since these projections were directly linked to the
<br />number of trips generated in the TP+ model, it was important that staff and elected leaders from
<br />the cities and counties were comfortable with the projections.
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<br />Population Projections
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<br />Dr. Rathge prepared low-, medium- and high-population-growth projects. The Metro COG
<br />Policy Board in December of 200 I approved the "medium" growth scenario. Figure I presents
<br />the population projects for the cities and counties within the metropolitan area, using the medium
<br />scenarIo.
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<br />Figure 1: Metropolitan Area Population Projections
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<br />Jurisdiction 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
<br />Cass County* 17,599 16,057 16,966 15,913 16,679 14,329 15,046
<br />Fargo 90,599 97,911 103,454 109,946 115,239 122,593 128,722
<br />West Fargo 14,940 16,580 17,518 18,807 19,712 22,290 23,404
<br />Clay County* 16,120 15,533 15,446 13,243 13,317 12,071 12,184
<br />Moorhead 32,177 33,138 32,950 35,314 35,512 36,740 37,082
<br />Dilworth 3,001 3,107 3,089 3,376 3,395 3,674 3,708
<br />Metro Total 174,367 182,326 189,423 195,599 203,854 211,697 220,146
<br />
<br />Source: Dr Richard Rathge, State Demographer, NDSU
<br />* Figures represent all of Cass and Clay Counties, except Fargo. West Fargo, Moorhead and Dihl'orth.
<br />
<br />Executive Summary - Fargo-Moorhead Metropolitan Area Transportation Plan Update
<br />Fargo-Moorhead Metropolitan Council of Governments
<br />
<br />June 2004
<br />Page 7
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