04-23-2020
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Informational Sheet <br />Agricultural Risk Study <br />April 2020 <br />The NDSU Department of Agri- <br />business was asked to study how the <br />temporary storage of floodwaters would <br />affect crop production and agricultural <br />revenues in the area upstream of the <br />FM Area Diversion Project. <br />Specifically, NDSU has studied <br />how the effects of flooding align with <br />regional planting and increasing the un- <br />derstanding of how Project <br />operation would impact planting dates. <br />•Substantial acreage within staging <br />area is not adversely affected. <br />•The majority of adversely affected <br />acreage has potential planting delays <br />of one to five days. <br />•Some storage tracks will have <br />substantially adverse effects. It is <br />hard to make generalizations that <br />represent all situations. <br />•Economic conclusions are influenced <br />by high acreage of soybeans -- 50% <br />of land is in soybeans. Soybeans <br />have later planting dates and are less <br />sensitive to yield reductions. <br />•Economic losses are sensitive to <br />dry-down requirements. <br />•Combinations of a long, or late- <br />occurring flood and relatively early <br />planting start dates are required to <br />produce more pronounced levels of <br />planting delays. <br />•241 individual storage <br />areas totaling more than <br />54,000 acres <br />•Exceeds the designation of <br />the staging area provided <br />by USACE (27,000 acres <br />of inundated lands) <br />•Data from HEC-RAS 9.1 <br />hydrology model provided <br />by FM Diversion Author- <br />ity <br />•Study used entire acreage <br />of a storage area if any <br />portion of the area was <br />inundated <br />•10-year event <br />•20-year event <br />•3 kinds of 25-year events <br />•50-year event <br />•Similar to 2009 <br />•100-year event <br />•500-year event <br />•Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) <br />Scope of Research <br />Observations at a Glance <br />Study conducted by the North Dakota State University Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics <br />Hydrology <br />Economic & Historical <br />Flood Dates Planting Dates Planting Rates <br />During a 25-year or larger flood even <br />with the Project in place, <br />•There is a high probability of modest <br />revenue losses due to planting delays <br />•There is a low probability of greater <br />revenue losses due to planting delays <br />Upstream Mitigation Area Studied <br />Preparing the Data <br />FLOOD SIMULATION <br />ANALYSIS <br />of 10 floo events <br />With the <br />Project <br />Without the <br />Project <br />Upstream Mitigation Area <br />Comstock <br />Attachment 06
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