04-18-2022 Agenda - Laserfiche WebLink

CASS COUNTY ROADWAY 18 EXTENSION STUDY – CASS COUNTY, ND 21 4.4 FORECASTED TRAFFIC VOLUMES 4.4.1 METHODOLOGY The location of 52nd Street SE is rural with farms and residents typically located everyone one to two miles along the roadway. The City of Kindred is within one mile of the far west end of the roadway. No other cities or proposed developments are located near the roadway. Traditional trip generation and traffic forecasting relies on known existing and future development within analysis zones to determine the trips that will be generated by the development. Once the number of trips is known, the trips are assigned to roadways serving the analysis zone. With the rural location of this roadway and very limited development planned for the future, the traditional methodology for forecasting traffic volumes was adjusted to determine the traffic forecasts for this roadway. A step-based methodology is provided below with further explanation following: Step 1. Determine existing base traffic volumes along area roadways and at the CR18 and North Dakota 46 (ND46) Interchanges Step 2. Determine existing traffic patterns and directional distribution Step 3. Determine traffic growth rates based on historic traffic data Step 4. Review Cities of Oxbow and Kindred land use information for future traffic volume growth Step 5. Determine future traffic roadway assignment based on travel times for each alternative Step 6. Review and balance traffic forecasts, as needed. The 52nd Street SE corridor is located such that the only sizable trip generators in the area, Cities of Kindred and Oxbow, are able to serve as a cordon boundary along with Interstate 29, ND 46, and the north City Limits of Kindred. Several NDDOT traffic count sites are located at the ramps and cross road of the interchanges and along Cass County Road 15 and ND 46. The traffic volumes at the boundary points allow for accurately determining where traffic using 52nd Street SE is originating and ending. Steps 1, 2, and 3 of the methodology were based on North Dakota Department of Transportation (NDDOT) historic traffic data. Some of the area roadway historic annual average traffic growth rates are included in Figure 11 with 2018 traffic volumes. Once this information was determined, the existing base traffic information was complete. The information needed for step 4 was readily available from the Cities on each of the City websites or from their city engineer. The percentage of developed lots for the current year 2018 were determined for each development in the City and then the expected growth due to a full-build out of the development was determined. Both Cities have limited existing lots available with populations that are expected to grow and stabilize by 2025 so a full-build out was assumed for all forecasting. For step 5, several NDDOT traffic count sites are located on the roadways serving both cities, which allowed for basing the trip assignments off the current travel patterns for each City. The current developed households were used to determine an approximate rate of trips that were used for forecasting future traffic volumes based on the anticipated growth. Two main factors were used in determining the future traffic assignments for each alternative to be considered; travel time and roadway surface type. It is generally assumed that when travelers would be provided an opportunity to choose 52nd Street SE for travel versus an alternative route, the travel time would have to be shorter for 52nd Street SE or the condition of the roadway would have to be improved from an aggregate surface to a paved surface to attract a significant number of vehicles. The travel time