04-18-2022 Agenda
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04-18-2022 Agenda
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<br /> CASS COUNTY ROADWAY 18 EXTENSION STUDY – CASS COUNTY, <br />ND <br /> <br />21 <br />4.4 FORECASTED TRAFFIC VOLUMES <br />4.4.1 METHODOLOGY <br />The location of 52nd Street SE is rural with farms and residents typically located everyone one to two <br />miles along the roadway. The City of Kindred is within one mile of the far west end of the roadway. No <br />other cities or proposed developments are located near the roadway. Traditional trip generation and traffic <br />forecasting relies on known existing and future development within analysis zones to determine the trips <br />that will be generated by the development. Once the number of trips is known, the trips are assigned to <br />roadways serving the analysis zone. With the rural location of this roadway and very limited development <br />planned for the future, the traditional methodology for forecasting traffic volumes was adjusted to <br />determine the traffic forecasts for this roadway. A step-based methodology is provided below with further <br />explanation following: <br />Step 1. Determine existing base traffic volumes along area roadways and at the CR18 and North <br />Dakota 46 (ND46) Interchanges <br /> Step 2. Determine existing traffic patterns and directional distribution <br /> Step 3. Determine traffic growth rates based on historic traffic data <br /> Step 4. Review Cities of Oxbow and Kindred land use information for future traffic volume growth <br /> Step 5. Determine future traffic roadway assignment based on travel times for each alternative <br /> Step 6. Review and balance traffic forecasts, as needed. <br /> <br />The 52nd Street SE corridor is located such that the only sizable trip generators in the area, Cities of <br />Kindred and Oxbow, are able to serve as a cordon boundary along with Interstate 29, ND 46, and the <br />north City Limits of Kindred. Several NDDOT traffic count sites are located at the ramps and cross road <br />of the interchanges and along Cass County Road 15 and ND 46. The traffic volumes at the boundary <br />points allow for accurately determining where traffic using 52nd Street SE is originating and ending. Steps <br />1, 2, and 3 of the methodology were based on North Dakota Department of Transportation (NDDOT) <br />historic traffic data. Some of the area roadway historic annual average traffic growth rates are included in <br />Figure 11 with 2018 traffic volumes. Once this information was determined, the existing base traffic <br />information was complete. <br /> <br />The information needed for step 4 was readily available from the Cities on each of the City websites or <br />from their city engineer. The percentage of developed lots for the current year 2018 were determined for <br />each development in the City and then the expected growth due to a full-build out of the development was <br />determined. Both Cities have limited existing lots available with populations that are expected to grow <br />and stabilize by 2025 so a full-build out was assumed for all forecasting. For step 5, several NDDOT <br />traffic count sites are located on the roadways serving both cities, which allowed for basing the trip <br />assignments off the current travel patterns for each City. The current developed households were used <br />to determine an approximate rate of trips that were used for forecasting future traffic volumes based on <br />the anticipated growth. <br /> <br />Two main factors were used in determining the future traffic assignments for each alternative to be <br />considered; travel time and roadway surface type. It is generally assumed that when travelers would be <br />provided an opportunity to choose 52nd Street SE for travel versus an alternative route, the travel time <br />would have to be shorter for 52nd Street SE or the condition of the roadway would have to be improved <br />from an aggregate surface to a paved surface to attract a significant number of vehicles. The travel time
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